The epidemic has repeatedly blocked logistics. How much is the cost of logistics enterprises?
Xinhua Finance, Shanghai, April 10 (Reporter Yang Youzong) The reporter saw in the Waigaoqiao area of Pudong New District, Shanghai a few days ago that many container trucks were parked end to end on both sides of the road. These truck drivers can be as short as three to five days, or as long as they have no work to do for a week or two. Due to the control of the epidemic, it was difficult for some truck drivers to leave Shanghai, and the business volume shrank.
The stranded truck drivers are a microcosm of the logistics obstruction caused by the epidemic. Since the current round of the epidemic, prevention and control measures have been upgraded in many places, and the travel of residents and the flow of goods have been affected to some extent. According to industry analysis, normalized prevention and control policies will increase the cost pressure of logistics enterprises, and will also make logistics industry practitioners face greater uncertainty.
The logistics system of truck drivers stranded is affected
In the Waigaoqiao area of Pudong New District, Shanghai, the reporter saw trucks with Shanghai E, Shanghai F and Su E license plates parked on the side of the road on Gangjian Road, Shendong Road and other roads. Go to bed, or make phone calls anxiously.
The driver Guo Liutao, a native of Shenqiu County, Zhoukou City, Henan Province, is 32 years old this year. He has been working as a truck driver for two years, and usually runs the Yangtze River Delta route. “I stopped in Shanghai on April 3, and it has been 4 days now. I have food and lodging in the car. I haven’t worked for 4 days. It turned out to be more than 200 yuan for one trip a day. Now I can’t make any money. The boss doesn’t make any money either.”
Shanghai has one of the busiest ports in the world. Data show that in 2021, the container throughput of Shanghai Port will exceed 47 million TEUs, ranking first in the world for 12 consecutive years. Shanghai Port Group announced on April 2 that according to internal data monitoring, the current operation of Shanghai Port is stable and orderly, and the berthing efficiency of Shanghai Port is significantly better than the overall level in 2021. Since March 28, the average waiting time of container ships in Shanghai Port has been less than 24 hours, and the average waiting time has been less than 10 ships. SIPG emphasized that the production and operation of the terminal are normal, and there is no congestion of container ships.
Although terminal operations have not been affected, the reporter learned that under the epidemic prevention and control, the container transshipment system has been greatly affected, and inter-provincial transportation has been greatly affected.
Liu Min, deputy director of the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce, said, “Shanghai is indeed facing some difficulties in ensuring the supply of living materials, such as the lack of smooth inter-provincial logistics due to the impact of the epidemic, and the lack of terminal capacity resulting in delayed delivery. We are working hard to get through with the support of all parties. Blocking points, solving difficulties, and trying to ensure the basic living needs of citizens during the epidemic.”
(The epidemic prevention seal on the collection card taken on April 7. Photo by Xinhua Finance reporter Yang Youzong)
On a Shanghai D license plate collection card in the Waigaoqiao area of Shanghai, the reporter saw that a seal was pasted next to the driver’s cab, and the seal was signed as “Nantong Tongzhou District Traffic Port Prevention and Control Team”.
A driver said that many places are now unable to get off the high-speed, and the pass does not work, and some places do not recognize it . “Some drivers will not let them go to Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and can only pull the goods back.”
The driver, Zhang Chaohua, said that on April 1, he drove a pickup truck to a certain place in Jiangsu, where he queued from 7 am to 12 pm, but was told before getting off the expressway that the Shanghai license plate could not get off the expressway, so he had to go back the same way. .
Strict policies are behind the continuous tightening of epidemic prevention and control policies. On April 5 and April 6, Ningbo, Zhejiang reported 8 cases of infections related to road freight, including truck drivers, long-distance freight drivers, and gas station staff in high-speed service areas. After tracing the source of the flow, the trajectories of the cases focus on high-speed exits and high-speed service areas, especially restaurants, shower rooms, toilets, gas stations and other places in the high-speed service areas.
The repeated outbreak of the epidemic will have a greater impact on the express logistics industry. Beginning in early March this year, affected by the epidemic in many parts of the country, some transit centers and outlets were closed, and express delivery in many places was interrupted in stages. Some e-commerce platforms also experienced delivery delays and suspensions.
According to a research report released by Sinolink Securities on April 5, the epidemic is expected to have a greater impact on express delivery services, and the volume of express delivery business is expected to decline.
Data from the State Post Bureau shows that the volume of express delivery business in March is expected to drop by 2.5% year-on-year, and the revenue of express delivery business is expected to drop by 4.4% year-on-year. The industry entered the off-season in March, and the price side remained stable.
The impact of the epidemic may disrupt the growth pace of the express delivery business in the early stage. Prior to this, the performance of many express delivery companies has entered the cashing period.
The main operating data released by YTO from January to February 2022 shows that its express delivery business completed 2.297 billion tickets, a year-on-year increase of 27.81%; the operating income was about 7.624 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.28%; the net profit attributable to the parent was about 545 million yuan. , a year-on-year increase of 186.36%.
According to the annual report of SF Holding, in the fourth quarter of 2021, the profit was 2.471 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.01%, and the non-net profit after deduction was 1.501 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.07%.
Guosen Securities analyst Jiang Ming said that it is estimated that in the past two to three weeks, the epidemic has caused the business volume of the express delivery industry to decrease by 10% to 20% compared with usual. At the same time, considering the impact of the reduced business volume on the allocation of fixed costs, it is expected that the short-term profits of express companies will be affected by The negative impact outweighs the business volume. However, the impact of the epidemic is one-off, and the short-term express demand is more suppressed rather than disappeared. Therefore, it believes that after the epidemic resumes, express demand is expected to rebound. “Considering that the profits of leading express delivery companies will be greatly restored this year, the current valuation is relatively cheap, and we continue to recommend leading express delivery companies.”
The poor transportation of containers has affected the production and circulation of some enterprises. A person in charge of a company in Pudong said that the current circulation system is not smooth, and even if the company produces products, it is not easy to ship out, so the downtime is simply extended.
Wang Hai, editor-in-chief of the shipping industry network and an analyst in the shipping industry, said that although terminal operations have not been affected, the closure and control measures will have a certain impact on truck transportation and container turnover, which may lead to some container companies to take corresponding adjustment measures.
(A pickup truck parked in the Waigaoqiao area of Pudong New District, Shanghai on April 7. Photo by Xinhua Finance reporter Yang Youzong)
Maersk, a container shipping company, stated on its official website that at present, Shanghai ports such as Yangshan Port and Waigaoqiao Port are still operating normally, but the warehouses in the closed area have been seriously affected, and the efficiency of Maersk’s freight services to and from Shanghai will also be further affected. Maersk said it will provide multimodal transport services by barge and rail as an alternative to transport between Shanghai and nearby cities.
Wang Ling, an analyst at East Asia Qianhai Securities, said that the lack of shipping capacity in the container industry has pushed up freight rates. In 2021, under the influence of multiple factors such as repeated COVID-19 epidemics, increased transportation demand, and limited supply of transportation capacity, the global logistics supply chain will continue to be challenged and impacted by complex situations such as port congestion, container shortages, and inland transportation delays, and the supply and demand relationship of container transportation will continue to be tense. . The container and dry bulk cargo industry already has the advantage of scale under the tight transportation capacity, and the leading enterprises in the global route are expected to benefit.
The epidemic has brought a new shock to the gradually recovering economy, and the impact may extend throughout the first half of the year, as demand recovery and expected improvement will take time. Sheng Songcheng, executive vice president of the CEIBS Lujiazui Institute of International Finance, wrote in an article that as the epidemic is repeated in China’s core cities , the spillover effect of the epidemic will be more obvious. We should pay close attention to weak links in the economy, stabilize employment, protect people’s livelihood, and promote consumption. Continue to rationally relax real estate regulation from the demand side. Take infrastructure investment as an important starting point for stabilizing growth. Fiscal policy should be more proactive. Monetary policy should now pay more attention to the use of quantitative tools.
“In fixed asset investment, infrastructure investment is more controllable, which can promote economic stabilization and improve market expectations in a relatively short period of time. Therefore, infrastructure investment is still an important starting point for stable growth this year, and under the impact of the epidemic, Infrastructure investment will play a more important role.” Sheng Songcheng said.
Statement: Xinhua Finance is a national financial information platform constructed by Xinhua News Agency. The information published on this platform does not constitute investment advice under any circumstances.
The epidemic has repeatedly blocked logistics. How much is the cost of logistics enterprises?