Still the market is quiet this week, nobody is making noise at this point of time.
The demands is still at a low level, but the turning point of the crazy trend still not show up.
- The expectation of the price increase in July is strong. In april and last month, Kronos, Venator and Tronox announced their plan to increase the price in July. So will you chooice to decease the price for orders in June, if you are the manfuacture? I beg you will not.
If you will, you may choice to do it in May or early June, and increase it back in the late of June or the early July. Apparently, nobody was doing so.
- The output is in a temporarily ups and down after a full load running of 6 months Today, Pangang groups’ facility in Panzhihua area discontinued production due to accident. Meanwhile, in Guangxi and Guangdong province, the power is limited supply, and meets only half the needs of normal. Surprisingly, the Anatase supply is getting more tight than expected. As we all know, in the past, more and more users are shitfing to the Rutile grades due to its outstanding performance comparing with Anatase. But now, we found that, many users are shifting back to Anatase due the crazy price increase of Rutile, to whom a little compromise in quality is not a serious issue. But more importantly, most of the producers of Anatase already shift their production line to Rutile and not willing to shit it back yet. Only handful producers in China located in Guangxi, Guizhou and Sichuan. As a result , now the FOB price of anatase grade of tio2, is surpassing 3000USD/MT already.
- The futures players is ready to start a new game. Last month, most of the stocks in the market got cleaned, which means the futures player is also reloaded and wait only for a signal, which we believe could appear in late of June, to involve again.
So in the end, we make bold estimation that there is 60% chance of the price going up, 29% chance of the price keeping still, and only 1% chance to turning down. This 1% is only for showing some respect to probability.
So what is your estimated FOB Chian price in July? Please feel free to comment.